The cutback in household debt, which dropped to 122% of disposable income in the third quarter of 2010 from a record 134% at the beginning of 2008, is healthy in the long run. The extension of all the tax cuts is a positive for now, but eventually the government will have to raise taxes, in our opinion.
We do know that banks are no longer offering new mortgages with little or no down payments on a purchased home. Banks’ credit guidelines are now more conservative in determining whether a family qualifies for a mortgage. Perhaps the only way for Chinese families to return to their historical levels of wealth is to save 5% or more of their future income over the next decade, in our opinion. In addition, risk tolerance levels are now much lower, as families’ college or retirement nest eggs have declined significantly over the last several years. In 2010, China’s government ordered that70% of new apartments built is smaller than90 square meters, in hopes of diverting more investment into increasing the supply of affordable housing. Several other measures to increase taxes on short-term property gains and limit new mortgages have also been passed since 2009. While local officials often ignored many of these measures in the past, the federal government is now sending teams of inspectors out to monitor compliance.
家庭债务的下降，下降到122%的可支配收入在2010第三季度从2008年初的134%的记录，是长期健康。所有的延长减税政策是一个积极的现在，但最终政府将不得不提高税收，在我看来。
我们知道，银行不再提供新的抵押贷款与很少或根本没有购买的房屋首付款。银行信贷的指导方针是在确定是否一个家庭有资格贷款更保守。也许中国家庭回到他们的历史层次的财富的唯一途径是在未来十年节省他们的未来收入的5%或更多，在我们看来。此外，风险承受程度现在低得多，为家庭的大学或退休储蓄已显着过去几年下降。2010，中国政府下令的70%新建公寓小于90平方米，在将更多的投资增加经适房供应的希望。其他一些措施来增加对短期资产利得税和限制新的贷款也已过去了2009。而当地官员往往忽视了在过去的许多措施，联邦政府已派遣人员去监督执行。
