Assignment First

英国查重:中国经济增长的主要驱动

分析师们最关心的问题是,中国的经济增长是由出口拉动,还是有可能由国内拉动。中国经济越来越注重投资和消费。然而,中国有机会发展与发达经济体更为平衡的贸易关系。与此同时,经营企业或计划进入中国的企业可能会发现更大程度的机遇,因为中国经济从以制造业为基础的经济向一个重要的消费市场转型,可能会加速增长。

为了阐明这一问题,我们提出了一种衡量中国出口增长及其在整体经济扩张中所起作用的新方法。中国经济增长的主要驱动力仍将是出口,这一趋势正呈上升趋势,或在未来很可能出现这种趋势,但中国抓住了这一优势,正如人们所认为的那样。有迹象表明,中国经济正在或已经开始转向由内需驱动的经济增长。

还有一个需要解决的问题,这是关系到中国经济增长的一个重要方面。有从中国官员承认,经济改革发生在过去二十年一直负责强烈的民众骚乱已经重新定义利益,组成和国家的政治态度与复杂性不断增加的社会阶层。穷人和富人之间的界限已经发生了变化,他们之间的差距也在扩大。复员军人、普通工人、农民和社会其他弱势群体之间的差距越来越大。随着他们的支持系统的衰落,这些地区已经失去了阵地。

将DVAE对经济增长的贡献与宏观经济的其他主要组成部分进行比较,发现DVAE对私人消费的贡献最大。然而,它也表明,在2002年至2007年期间,私人消费的重要性低于投资。在全球经济低迷时期(2008年和2009年),出口对经济增长的贡献远远小于其他因素。这就是为什么中国经济不可能完全赶上前十年GDP增速的原因。然而,中国在成品进口、投资和私人消费方面的角色已经发生了转变,这说明中国能够很好地抵御经济低迷,这表明中国经济将出现一场以国内为重点的运动。即使在全球经济复苏之际,出口发挥了重要作用,这一点也不会改变。

如果人民币在未来几年继续升值,也会对中国贸易的发展产生影响。出口部门更加集中,而且DVAE的分析表明,出口所占的比重更大的是价格较高的商品,以便更直接地与发达经济体竞争。与此同时,人民币的升值一直指向建立贸易伙伴关系,这种关系与世界其它地区的关系更为平衡。这是一个转变,在考虑企业未来在中国的战略举措时,这一点非常重要。


英国查重 :中国经济增长的主要驱动

The question of whether the economic growth of China is export led or is likely to become domestically led is foremost in the minds of the analysts. The Chinese economy is increasingly focused on investment and consumption. However, there are chances for China to develop trading relationships that is more balanced with the developed economies. Simultaneously, the operating business or the ones that plans to enter China could be finding the opportunities of greater extent as there can be an acceleration of the economy in relation to its transition from a manufacturing based economy to an important consumer market.
In shedding light to this question, a new way to measure the China’s growth in exports and the role it plays in the economic expansion overall. There is an increasing trend or likely to be in the future that the major driver of growth remains with exports, but it seized to be as dominant as it is perceived. There have been signals that the Chinese economy shifting towards an economic growth that is driven domestically is or have started already.
There is another that needs to be addressed that is an important aspect related to the economic growth of China. There has been acknowledgment from the officials of China that economic reforms taking place for the last two decades has been responsible for intense popular unrest that has been redefining the interests, composition and the political attitude of the country in relation to its ever increasing complexity of its social strata. There has been shift in the boundaries between the poor and rich and there has been growth in the gap between them. There has been losing of ground between demobilized soldiers, ordinary workers, the farmers, and other weaker section of the society. These sections have lost ground with the waning of their support system.
When comparing between the contribution of DVAE to the growth and other major components of macro economy, it reveals that the private consumption is topped by DVAE. However, it also shows that the private consumption has lesser importance than investment in the period 2002-2007. In the years when there was economic downturn worldwide (2008 and 2009), the contribution of exports has been much less in relation to the growth than what has been done by the other factors. This is the explanation as to why it was not possible for the Chinese economy to be fully matching the growth rates of its GDP in the decade’s earlier part. However, there has been a shift for a greater role in finished imports, investment, and private consumption explaining the way China could be weathering well the downturn with an indication that there will be a movement in an economy that is focused domestically. This will hold true even if an important role is played by the exports when there is picking up of the global economy.
If the changes continue in the renminibi value in the years to come, there will also be affect in the evolution of trade in China. The export sector, which is more focused and value added that has been suggested by the analysis of DVAE has the implication that export’s greater share consists of goods that are priced higher to be competing more directly with developed economies. This along with appreciation in the Chinese currency has been pointing towards the creation of trading partnerships, which are more balanced with the rest of the world. This is a shift, which is important in the context of the consideration of the businesses with regards to the strategic moves of future in China.